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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Wisconsin Milwaukee

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:307.0
Current RPI:307
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:172
Current Record:6-24
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-6
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:279


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-24307.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin Milwaukee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina (222.0)SECA82-75L0%0.0
11-17Davidson (61.0)SCH73-68W100%0.0
11-19Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBA59-43L0%0.0
11-24Jacksonville (281.0)ASunN66-71L0%0.0
11-25Rider (145.0)MAACN74-60L0%0.0
12-1Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCA72-61L0%0.0
12-5Buffalo (215.0)MACH52-72L0%0.0
12-7Northern Illinois (333.0)MACH80-73W100%0.0
12-9DePaul (204.0)BEA84-50L0%0.0
12-12Fairfield (173.0)MAACA62-46L0%0.0
12-15Tennessee Tech (242.0)OVCH58-69L0%0.0
12-22Wisconsin (32.0)B10A74-53L0%0.0
1-3Detroit (63.0)HorzA74-59L0%0.0
1-5Wright St. (129.0)HorzA53-51L0%0.0
1-12Valparaiso (58.0)HorzH52-76L0%0.0
1-17Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzH69-57W100%0.0
1-19Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzH72-75L0%0.0
1-23Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzA60-50L0%0.0
1-25Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzH54-74L0%0.0
1-30Loyola Chicago (223.0)HorzA76-65L0%0.0
2-1Valparaiso (58.0)HorzA71-40L0%0.0
2-7Detroit (63.0)HorzH74-82L0%0.0
2-9Wright St. (129.0)HorzH49-64L0%0.0
2-12Loyola Chicago (223.0)HorzH71-53W100%0.0
2-15Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzA94-80L0%0.0
2-17Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzA88-67L0%0.0
2-20Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzH64-53W100%0.0
2-23IUPUI (326.0)SumA88-95W100%0.0
2-26Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzA78-61L0%0.0
3-5Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzA62-46L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin Milwaukee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin Milwaukee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin Milwaukee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz26.3526.3517.4617.46-17.15-17.15
Wisconsin Green BayHorz5.935.9348.2848.28-0.20-0.20
ValparaisoHorz4.344.3476.6776.672.312.31
Wright St.Horz4.324.3260.0060.000.860.86
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.314.3151.7251.720.150.15
Loyola ChicagoHorz4.294.2946.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Youngstown St.Horz4.254.2544.4444.44-0.47-0.47
DetroitHorz4.204.2057.1457.140.600.60
Cleveland St.Horz4.204.2037.0437.04-1.09-1.09
Northern IllinoisMAC1.881.8814.2914.29-1.34-1.34
Tennessee TechOVC1.801.8034.6234.62-0.55-0.55
RiderMAAC1.791.7954.8454.840.170.17
DePaulBE1.781.7832.2632.26-0.63-0.63
FairfieldMAAC1.771.7754.5554.550.160.16
South CarolinaSEC1.751.7541.9441.94-0.28-0.28
JacksonvilleASun1.751.7537.9337.93-0.42-0.42
WisconsinB101.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
Arkansas Little RockSB1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum1.721.7213.7913.79-1.24-1.24
BuffaloMAC1.701.7035.4835.48-0.49-0.49
DavidsonSC1.671.6780.6580.651.021.02
Northern IowaMVC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
ToledoMAC0.330.3353.5753.570.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.330.3336.6736.67-0.09-0.09
Kent St.MAC0.330.3359.3859.380.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.GWC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Ball St.MAC0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.190.1980.6580.650.120.12
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1971.4371.430.080.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
DrakeMVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
IonaMAAC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
South FloridaBE0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
BradleyMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.130.1378.1278.120.080.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Western KentuckySB0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Michigan St.B100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MaristMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
AuburnSEC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Old DominionCAA0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
SyracuseBE0.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
TempleA100.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North TexasSB0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
WoffordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
CreightonMVC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
DrexelCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0628.0028.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0610.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.067.147.14-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01